Two Decades of Analysis on Race, Ethnicity, and Politics

The surprisingly wide national victory of President Barack Obama over his Republican challenger has occasioned quite a lot of political second-guessing, including among the GOP donors who contributed well over one billion dollars in cash to their candidate, only to be crushed on Election Day despite record-high national unemployment.

To reverse JFK’s famous phrase, it is true that “defeat has a thousand fathers” and one could certainly point to many factors behind this wide Democratic victory. But certainly one of these is the remarkable demographic tilt of the American electorate, with the share of Hispanic voters having now finally crossed the double-digit mark, and favoring the Democratic incumbent by a huge 44 point margin. Meanwhile, Asian voters increased their numbers at even a faster relative pace and tilted even more in the Democratic direction, 73% to 26%.

These grim facts for future Republican prospects have been highlighted in front page stories this morning in the Wall Street Journal and the San Jose Mercury News, as well as on Bloomberg:

Vote Data Show Changing Nation, Neil King Jr.,
The Wall Street Journal, November 8, 2012, Front Page

The GOP Challenge, Patrick May and Matt O’Brien,
San Jose Mercury News, November 8, 2012, Front Page

Asian Voters Send a Message to Republicans, Francis Wilkinson,
Bloomberg News, November 8, 2010


As it happens, the subjects of race, ethnicity, and social policy, together with their combined impact on the political landscape has long been a specialty of mine, and my published prognostications in this area stretch back almost twenty years. Here’s a collection of a few of the more significant examples, allowing any interested individuals to decide for themselves to what extent my analyses have been proven correct over the years:

Immigration, Republicans, and the End of White America, Ron Unz,
The American Conservative, October 2011, Cover Story

How the Republicans Lost California, Ron Unz,
The Wall Street Journal, August 28, 2000

California and the End of White America, Ron Unz,
Commentary, November 1999, Cover Story

The Right Kind of Outreach for the GOP, Ron Unz,
The Weekly Standard, March 1, 1999

Value Added: Why National Review Is Wrong, Ron Unz,
National Review, November 7, 1994

Immigration or the Welfare State?, Ron Unz,
Policy Review, Fall 1994

In fact, a total of 67 of my published print articles or web columns on the topic of Immigration/Race may be found on my personal website (plus another 289 such pieces on the more specialized topic of “bilingual education”).  Offhand, I can’t recall a single prominent conservative or Republican leader who has ever paid much attention to my suggestions, perhaps partly explaining the consequences we see today.



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